With nine games of the Premier League season left to play, there is no shortage of drama – and while the title race and relegation markets have both kept fans on edge all season, it’s the battle at the bottom that is shaping up to be the more unpredictable story. Six clubs are involved to varying degrees, and the gap between them is just six points. Here is exactly where each team stands.

The guaranteed bottom two

Wolves and Burnley are done. Opta’s supercomputer puts Wolves at 99.92% likely to be relegated, with Burnley close behind at 99.36%. Wolves have only 16 points from 30 games and are 14 points from safety.

Burnley need to effectively double their win count across the remaining fixtures to have any chance, and nothing in their recent form suggests that is likely. Both clubs will be playing Championship football next season, barring something that the statistics call close to impossible.

West Ham still in danger

West Ham sit in 18th place and are the third-most likely club to go down, with Opta giving them a 49.53% chance of relegation. Their recent form has improved, and Nuno Espirito Santo has overseen three wins from five since taking charge. But they are still in the drop zone and need to keep winning. A home fixture against Manchester City in Matchweek 30 is exactly the kind of test that will tell us whether this improvement is real or just a brief patch of confidence.

Nottingham Forest

Forest are 17th on goal difference, level on points with West Ham, but their Opta relegation probability is a more manageable 26.88%. Vitor Pereira has come in and steadied things slightly following Sean Dyche’s sacking in February, but Forest are winless in six league games and face Tottenham on 22 March in one of the most important fixtures of the run-in. A win there would go a long way toward sealing their survival.

Tottenham are winless in 2026

This is the big one. Spurs are one point above the bottom three, winless in all 11 of their league games in 2026, and facing a trip to Anfield this weekend, where they have not won since 2011. Igor Tudor was appointed in mid-February to replace the sacked Thomas Frank, but has so far failed to arrest the decline. Opta gives them a 16.10% chance of relegation, a number that has more than doubled after Thursday’s 3-1 home defeat to Crystal Palace. The last time Tottenham were relegated was almost 50 years ago in the 1976-77 season, where they finished 22nd under Keith Burkinshaw. The fact that it is even being discussed as a possibility this season tells you everything about how badly this campaign has unravelled at Spurs.

Leeds United

Leeds are 15th, three points above the bottom three and six clear of West Ham. Their Opta relegation probability stands at 8.09%, and they have the kindest remaining fixture list of all six clubs in the fight, facing the likes of Brentford, Manchester United, and Wolves in the next few weeks. Daniel Farke’s side have been inconsistent, but their position and schedule means they are better placed than most to see this out.